variance-decomposition

Research

Sobol variance decomposition — compute first-order and total-order sensitivity indices to quantify each parameter's contribution to output variance.

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Variance Decomposition

Quantify each parameter's contribution to output variance.

Budget

Base SOP	Target	±10% Range
web-search	20	18–22
web-research	10	9–11
paper-overview	30	27–33
paper-search	25	22–28
paper-research	15	13–17

State Ledger

<HARD-GATE>
| SOP | Done | Target | % |
|-----|------|--------|---|
| web-search | ? | 20 | ? |
| web-research | ? | 10 | ? |
| paper-overview | ? | 30 | ? |
| paper-search | ? | 25 | ? |
| paper-research | ? | 15 | ? |
Budget Gate: OPEN/CLOSED (>=80% required to exit)
</HARD-GATE>

Available Tactics

screening-then-decomposition

Available SOPs

Import: web-search, web-research, paper-overview, paper-search, paper-research Subagent: sobol-decomposition, interaction-detection

Execution Guidance

For parameters surviving screening, compute Sobol first-order (Si) and total-order (STi) indices. Si measures direct effect, STi-Si measures interaction contribution. Focus on parameters with high STi.

Available Tactics

Optional, no fixed order; the final leaf is always a sop.

Tactic	When to use
screening-then-decomposition	Two-phase sensitivity — Morris quick screening to eliminate unimportant factors, then Sobol precise decomposition on survivors. Efficient allocation of analytical effort.

Available SOPs

Optional, no fixed order; the final leaf is always a sop.

SOP	When to use
interaction-detection	Detect and characterize significant parameter interactions from Sobol decomposition results.
sobol-decomposition	Sobol variance decomposition — compute first-order and total-order sensitivity indices for precise variance attribution.