structural-counterfactual

Research

Strategy: Pearl Three-Step counterfactual — Abduction (fit model to evidence), Action (intervene on factor), Prediction (derive counterfactual outcome).

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Structural Counterfactual Strategy

Pearl Three-Step: Abduction, Action, Prediction applied to artifact validation.

Method

causal-claim-extraction identifies causal structure in the artifact
factor-enumeration lists all factors in the causal model
Abduction: fit background variables to observed evidence
Action: single-factor-removal intervenes on one factor at a time
Prediction: counterfactual-scenario-construction derives new outcome
necessity-evaluation and sufficiency-evaluation score each factor
load-bearing-identification synthesizes results

Budget Table

Parameter	S	M	L
Factors modeled	5	10	20
Interventions per factor	1	2	4
Prediction depth	2	4	8

Orchestration

causal-claim-extraction → factor-enumeration
→ [for each factor]:
    single-factor-removal (abduction + action)
    → counterfactual-scenario-construction (prediction)
    → necessity-evaluation + sufficiency-evaluation
→ load-bearing-identification → fragility-measurement

Subagents

causal-claim-extraction (model building)
factor-enumeration (variable identification)
single-factor-removal (intervention)
counterfactual-scenario-construction (prediction)
necessity-evaluation (PN scoring)
sufficiency-evaluation (PS scoring)
load-bearing-identification (synthesis)
fragility-measurement (aggregation)

Available Tactics

Optional, no fixed order; the final leaf is always a sop.

Tactic	When to use
causal-necessity-testing	Tactic: Extract causal claims, evaluate probability of necessity (PN) and sufficiency (PS) for each, classify into necessity-sufficiency quadrants.
systematic-factor-ablation	Tactic: List all factors, remove one at a time, assess conclusion stability, rank factors by load-bearing importance.

Available SOPs

Optional, no fixed order; the final leaf is always a sop.

SOP	When to use
causal-claim-extraction	Extract all causal claims (X causes Y, X leads to Y, X enables Y) from an artifact, producing a structured list of cause-effect pairs.
counterfactual-scenario-construction	Construct precise, internally consistent counterfactual scenarios where specified factors are altered, then reason about the resulting conclusion.
factor-enumeration	List all key factors, conditions, and assumptions that support or enable the artifact's conclusion.
fragility-measurement	Compute a fragility index from flip-point distances and degradation scores, summarizing how robust the conclusion is.
load-bearing-identification	Identify which factors are "load-bearing walls" — factors whose removal would collapse the conclusion.
necessity-evaluation	Evaluate the probability of necessity (PN) for a causal factor — would the conclusion fail if this factor were absent?
single-factor-removal	Remove one specified factor from the artifact's support structure and reason about how the conclusion changes.
sufficiency-evaluation	Evaluate the probability of sufficiency (PS) for a causal factor — would this factor alone be enough to produce the conclusion?