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prediction-markets-analysis

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Generate Kalshi prediction market research reports or fetch structured event history. Use when the user mentions Kalshi, prediction markets, market probability, expected return, or event history.

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How to use this skill

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Source SKILL.md: https://github.com/OctagonAI/octagon-mcp-server/blob/HEAD/skills/prediction-markets-analysis/SKILL.md

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Prediction Markets Analysis

Use this skill for Kalshi event research and historical prediction market analysis.

When to use

  • The user shares a Kalshi market URL
  • The user wants a structured report on one prediction market event
  • The user wants event history across snapshots or runs

Query format

Generate a report for the Kalshi market <KALSHI_URL>.

For structured history retrieval:

Fetch historical data for the Kalshi event ticker <EVENT_TICKER>.

MCP calls

Report generation:

{
  "server": "octagon-mcp",
  "toolName": "octagon-prediction-markets-agent",
  "arguments": {
    "prompt": "Generate a report for the Kalshi market https://kalshi.com/markets/kxbtcy/btc-price-range-eoy/kxbtcy-27jan0100"
  }
}

Structured history:

{
  "server": "octagon-mcp",
  "toolName": "prediction_markets_history",
  "arguments": {
    "event_ticker": "KXBTCY-27JAN0100",
    "limit": 50,
    "include_analysis": true
  }
}

Tool selection rules

  • Use octagon-prediction-markets-agent for analyst-style reports
  • Use prediction_markets_history for structured history, pagination, or time filtering
  • If the user wants guaranteed fresh data, set cache to false

Output expectations

  • Compare model probability to market probability
  • Highlight edge, expected return, and risk factors
  • Surface missing Kalshi URL immediately when absent

Follow-up prompts

  • "Refresh the report instead of using cache."
  • "Show the event history with analysis included."
  • "Summarize the largest drivers of divergence between model and market."