morphological-scenario

Research

What are all possible combinations? — Zwicky Box construction with CCA consistency filtering for systematic scenario enumeration

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Strategy: Morphological Scenario

Methodology

General Morphological Analysis (Zwicky) combined with Cross-Consistency Assessment (Ritchey). Systematically enumerate all possible combinations of key uncertainty parameters, filter for internal consistency, and assess surviving configurations as plausible scenarios.

Key principles:

Completeness: Every relevant parameter dimension is included
MECE values: Each parameter has mutually exclusive, collectively exhaustive values
Pairwise consistency: Filter via CCA matrix before narrative construction
Combinatorial discipline: Let the morphological field drive discovery, not intuition

Execution Flow

Identify drivers → spawn scenario-driver-identification
- Input: research context, planning horizon
- Output: 5-8 key uncertainty drivers
Enumerate parameters → spawn parameter-enumeration
- Input: driver list
- Output: Zwicky Box (parameter × value matrix)
Consistency filtering → spawn consistency-pair-evaluation
- Input: Zwicky Box
- Output: CCA matrix, surviving configurations
Narrative construction → spawn scenario-narrative-construction (per surviving config)
- Input: parameter configuration
- Output: scenario narrative
Impact assessment → spawn scenario-impact-assessment (per scenario)
- Input: scenario narrative, research approach
- Output: impact analysis
Robustness scoring → spawn robustness-scoring
- Input: all impact assessments
- Output: robustness index
Synthesis → spawn scenario-synthesis
- Input: all scenarios, robustness scores
- Output: final scenario portfolio report

Budget Gate

Step	Token Budget	Notes
Driver identification	8K	Single pass
Parameter enumeration	10K	May iterate once
Consistency filtering	15K	O(n²) pairwise
Narrative construction	12K × N	N = surviving configs (typically 4-8)
Impact assessment	10K × N	Per scenario
Robustness scoring	8K	Aggregation
Synthesis	12K	Final compilation

Available Tactics

Optional, no fixed order; the final leaf is always a sop.

Tactic	When to use
cross-consistency-filtering	Orchestrates pairwise consistency evaluation and narrative construction to filter the morphological field
parameter-space-construction	Orchestrates driver identification and parameter enumeration to build the complete morphological field
strategy-robustness-testing	Orchestrates impact assessment and robustness scoring to evaluate research approach resilience across scenarios

Available SOPs

Optional, no fixed order; the final leaf is always a sop.

SOP	When to use
experiment-execution-consistency-pair-evaluation	Pairwise consistency assessment using Cross-Consistency Assessment (CCA) matrix
parameter-enumeration	Enumerate possible values for each uncertainty driver using MECE principles
robustness-scoring	Compute robustness index across scenarios with sensitivity analysis
scenario-driver-identification	Identify key uncertainty drivers using PESTEL framework scanning
scenario-impact-assessment	Assess each scenario's impact on the research approach across multiple dimensions
scenario-narrative-construction	Build rich narratives for surviving morphological configurations using Shell method
scenario-synthesis	Comprehensive scenario analysis report synthesizing all scenario work