mechanism-mapping

Research

Map causal mechanisms between variables

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Mechanism Mapping

Construct the directed causal graph by creating mechanism edges between the variables identified in the variable-identification phase. Each edge must carry a plain-language description of the underlying mechanism and at least one evidence citation.

Guiding Focus

CC must treat each proposed edge as a hypothesis, not a fact. For every mechanism edge created, the description should answer three questions: what is the pathway, under what conditions does it hold, and what would falsify it. Edges without a plausible mechanism description are placeholders and must be revisited. The goal is a graph where every arrow is defensible, not merely plausible.

Available Tactics

counterfactual-reasoning — for each edge A→B, ask "if A were held constant, would B still change?" to stress-test the mechanism
evidence-weighing — rank competing mechanism descriptions by the strength and independence of their supporting citations
feedback-loop-detection — scan the emerging graph for cycles that would indicate feedback rather than one-way causation

Budget Slice

Metric	S	M	L
Mechanism edges created	10	25	50
Mechanism descriptions	5	15	30
Evidence citations	8	20	40

State Ledger Template

| Metric                  | Target | Current | Status |
|-------------------------|--------|---------|--------|
| Mechanism edges created | S:10 / M:25 / L:50 | 0 | ⬜ |
| Mechanism descriptions  | S:5 / M:15 / L:30  | 0 | ⬜ |
| Evidence citations      | S:8 / M:20 / L:40  | 0 | ⬜ |

Available Tactics

Optional, no fixed order; the final leaf is always a sop.

Tactic	When to use
counterfactual-reasoning	Tactic for reasoning about what would happen if variables were different — supports causal identification and intervention analysis.
evidence-weighing	Tactic for assessing the strength and relevance of evidence for causal claims — distinguishes correlation from causation.
feedback-loop-detection	Tactic for identifying circular causation — detect feedback loops, classify as reinforcing or balancing, document loop structure.

Available SOPs

Optional, no fixed order; the final leaf is always a sop.

SOP	When to use
mechanism-edge-creation	SOP for creating a causal mechanism edge — documents how one variable causes changes in another.