hypothesis-formulation

Research

Campaign: transform insights and gaps into structured testable hypotheses

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Hypothesis Formulation

Transform insights and gaps into structured testable hypotheses — answering "how do we turn an insight into a testable hypothesis?"

HARD-GATE

Not met → stop, recommend completing gap-prioritization or upstream work first.

Campaign Goal

Transform a vague "there's a gap here" or "this phenomenon is interesting" into a precise, falsifiable hypothesis with boundary conditions. The output is not a "solution" but a "testable proposition."

Strategy Selection

Strategy	When to Use	Reasoning direction
deductive-hypothesis-generation	The domain has mature theory, and the gap is a deviation between theoretical prediction and reality	Theory → prediction
inductive-hypothesis-generation	The domain lacks theory but has abundant empirical observations or data patterns	Data → regularity
abductive-hypothesis-generation	An anomalous phenomenon that existing theory cannot explain has been observed	Anomaly → best explanation
competing-hypothesis-construction	Need to maintain openness and avoid confirmation bias	Multiple explanations in parallel
hypothesis-operationalization	A directional hypothesis exists and needs to be formalized into a testable form	Vague → precise

CC selects autonomously based on input characteristics (whether there is theoretical support, whether there is anomalous data, hypothesis maturity). Can be combined serially.

Budget Gate

Tier	Hypothesis yield	Theory/mechanism	Falsifiability	Competing hypotheses
S	≥2 structured hypotheses	≥2 relevant theories	1 falsification scenario per hypothesis	Optional
M	≥3 structured hypotheses	≥3 theories + ≥5 mechanisms	≥1 scenario + boundary conditions per hypothesis	≥2 competing hypotheses
L	≥5 structured hypotheses	≥5 theories + ≥8 mechanisms	Complete falsifiability audit	≥3 competing hypotheses + discriminating predictions

Hypothesis Structure (standard output format)

Each hypothesis must contain:

Statement: If X then Y (condition-result form)
Variables: independent, dependent, control, and moderator variables
Mechanism: why X causes Y (causal chain)
Boundary conditions: the preconditions under which the hypothesis holds
Falsification: what observation would refute this hypothesis
Measurability: how to measure it (operational definitions)

Context Management

Invoke context-init at campaign start
Invoke context-checkpoint after each strategy completes (hard constraint)
All outputs accumulate in a single campaign-scoped context file

Minimum Yield

Each campaign run must produce:

≥2 complete structured hypotheses (including all 6 components)
A falsifiability argument for each hypothesis
Relationship notes between hypotheses (complementary/competing/independent)
A recommended next direction (which hypothesis is most worth further developing into a research question)

Available Strategies

Optional, no fixed order; the final leaf is always a sop.

Strategy	When to use
abductive-hypothesis-generation	Strategy: Inference to the best explanation in the face of anomalies
competing-hypothesis-construction	Strategy: Construct multiple competing hypotheses for the same phenomenon
deductive-hypothesis-generation	Strategy: deduce hypotheses from existing theory
hypothesis-operationalization	Strategy: refine a working hypothesis into a precise, testable form
inductive-hypothesis-generation	Strategy: induce and distill hypotheses from data/observations

Available SOPs

Optional, no fixed order; the final leaf is always a sop.

SOP	When to use
context-checkpoint	Append research process and results to the current Phase's context file. Each append MUST contain >=500 lines of markdown covering both process and results. Use this skill at plan-designated checkpoint points — typically after each strategy completes or at key decision nodes within a research Phase.
context-init	Create a new context file for a research Phase. Called once at Phase start to initialize the file that subsequent context-checkpoint calls will append to. Use this skill whenever a new research Phase begins and a fresh context file is needed.
hypothesis-formation-quality-gate-check	Shared SOP: General quality-gate check (format completeness, logical consistency)
hypothesis-formation-saturation-detection	Shared SOP: judge whether the current activity has reached information saturation
hypothesis-synthesis	SOP: synthesize all intermediate products into a final structured hypothesis set

Available Campaigns

Optional, no fixed order; the final leaf is always a sop.

Campaign	When to use
research-question	Campaign: Refine hypotheses into precise, framed research questions