evidence-collection

Research

Gather evidence for causal claims

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Evidence Collection

Systematically gather and attach evidence pages to the causal claims in the model, creating supported_by edges for confirming evidence and contradicts edges for disconfirming evidence. A causal model without evidence provenance is speculation; this strategy converts it into a structured, auditable knowledge artifact.

Guiding Focus

CC should treat evidence collection as adversarial by default: for every supported_by edge added, actively search for contradicting evidence before moving on. The contradicts edges are as important as the supported_by edges — a model that only records confirming evidence is biased. Evidence pages must record the source, study design (where applicable), and a brief assessment of quality. Quantity matters less than coverage across independent sources.

Available Tactics

evidence-weighing — score each evidence page by study design strength, sample size, and independence from other sources
counterfactual-reasoning — use "what evidence would change this claim?" to direct the search toward the most informative gaps
feedback-loop-detection — flag evidence patterns that suggest bidirectional causation rather than clean one-way support

Budget Slice

Metric	S	M	L
Evidence pages created	8	20	45
supported_by edges	10	25	50
contradicts edges flagged	2	5	10

State Ledger Template

| Metric                   | Target | Current | Status |
|--------------------------|--------|---------|--------|
| Evidence pages created   | S:8 / M:20 / L:45  | 0 | ⬜ |
| supported_by edges       | S:10 / M:25 / L:50 | 0 | ⬜ |
| contradicts edges flagged | S:2 / M:5 / L:10  | 0 | ⬜ |

Available Tactics

Optional, no fixed order; the final leaf is always a sop.

Tactic	When to use
counterfactual-reasoning	Tactic for reasoning about what would happen if variables were different — supports causal identification and intervention analysis.
evidence-weighing	Tactic for assessing the strength and relevance of evidence for causal claims — distinguishes correlation from causation.
feedback-loop-detection	Tactic for identifying circular causation — detect feedback loops, classify as reinforcing or balancing, document loop structure.

Available SOPs

Optional, no fixed order; the final leaf is always a sop.

SOP	When to use
evidence-linking	SOP for linking evidence pages to causal claims — creates supported_by or contradicts edges.