competing-hypothesis-construction

Research

Strategy: Construct multiple competing hypotheses for the same phenomenon

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Competing Hypothesis Construction

Construct multiple competing hypotheses for the same phenomenon: actively counter confirmation bias, maintain epistemic openness by building genuinely different explanations in parallel, and design decisive predictions that can distinguish them.

When to Use

The researcher already has a "preferred hypothesis" and needs to actively challenge it
The phenomenon has multiple plausible explanations, and premature convergence would lead in the wrong direction
You need to show reviewers or funders that alternative explanations have been considered
When designing experiments, you need to determine which variable best discriminates between competing explanations

Not applicable: the phenomenon has overwhelming evidence supporting a single explanation → directly use deductive-hypothesis-generation to refine that explanation.

Thinking Framework

Avoid confirmation bias by generating genuinely different explanations, then find discriminating predictions

The core logic of competing hypothesis construction:

Force diversity: competing hypotheses must be genuinely different at the mechanism level, not variants of the same mechanism
Symmetric treatment: each hypothesis is treated with equal seriousness; the preferred hypothesis is not allowed special treatment
Discriminating predictions: find decisive predictions that distinguish the hypotheses — what result supports H1 but contradicts H2, and vice versa
Matrix comparison: reveal structural differences between hypotheses through a systematic matrix

Quality criteria for competing hypotheses:

Genuinely competing: two hypotheses give different causal explanations for the same phenomenon (not weaker/stronger versions of the same explanation)
Mutual exclusivity: there exists at least one observable result that can support one while contradicting the other
Comparability: both hypotheses have clear testable predictions

Budget Gate

Tier	Competing hypotheses	Discriminating predictions	Comparison matrix	Falsifiability
S	≥2 genuinely competing hypotheses	≥1 discriminating prediction	simplified version (2×2)	1 falsification scenario per hypothesis
M	≥3 competing hypotheses	≥2 discriminating predictions	full matrix (hypotheses × predictions)	full falsification per hypothesis
L	≥4 competing hypotheses	≥3 discriminating predictions	full matrix + experiment design suggestions	full falsifiability audit

Default Reference Flow

Call the competing-hypothesis-generation SOP (via the competing-hypothesis-matrix tactic): force generation of hypotheses that are genuinely different at the mechanism level
Call the discriminating-prediction-design SOP: design discriminating predictions for each pair of competing hypotheses
Call the hypothesis-comparison-matrix SOP: build a hypotheses × predictions comparison matrix to reveal structural differences
Call the falsifiability-check SOP: generate a falsification scenario for each hypothesis

context-checkpoint

Record after each round:

Competing hypothesis list (core mechanism statement for each hypothesis)
Mechanism difference analysis (at what level the hypotheses are genuinely different)
Discriminating prediction list (which pair of hypotheses each prediction can distinguish)
Comparison matrix (hypotheses × predictions, annotated support/contradict/neutral)
Recommended decisive experiment directions

Available Tactics

Optional, no fixed order; the final leaf is always a sop.

Tactic	When to use
competing-hypothesis-matrix	Tactic: Multi-hypothesis management — generate competing hypotheses, design discriminating predictions, build a structured comparison matrix

Available SOPs

Optional, no fixed order; the final leaf is always a sop.

SOP	When to use
falsifiability-check	SOP: check whether a hypothesis meets the falsifiability criterion