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causal-necessity-testing

Research
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Tactic: Extract causal claims, evaluate probability of necessity (PN) and sufficiency (PS) for each, classify into necessity-sufficiency quadrants.

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Causal Necessity Testing Tactic

PNS evaluation: for each causal claim, determine whether the cause is necessary, sufficient, both, or neither.

Orchestration

  1. causal-claim-extraction extracts all X→Y causal claims from the artifact
  2. necessity-evaluation asks: if X had NOT occurred, would Y still hold? (PN)
  3. sufficiency-evaluation asks: if X occurred in isolation, would Y follow? (PS)
  4. Classify each claim into quadrant:
    • PN high + PS high → INUS condition (load-bearing)
    • PN high + PS low → necessary but not sufficient
    • PN low + PS high → sufficient but redundant
    • PN low + PS low → spurious or decorative
  5. load-bearing-identification synthesizes quadrant assignments

Scoring

  • PN and PS scored 0.0–1.0 (probability estimates)
  • Threshold for "high": >= 0.7
  • Threshold for "low": < 0.3
  • Middle range (0.3–0.7): uncertain, flag for deeper investigation

Subagents Dispatched

  • causal-claim-extraction (claim identification)
  • necessity-evaluation (PN scoring per claim)
  • sufficiency-evaluation (PS scoring per claim)
  • load-bearing-identification (quadrant synthesis)

Termination Conditions

  • All extracted claims evaluated within budget
  • Early termination if INUS condition found and budget is S
  • All claims score PN < 0.3 (no necessary factors found — conclusion may be overdetermined)

Available SOPs

Optional, no fixed order; the final leaf is always a sop.

SOPWhen to use
causal-claim-extractionExtract all causal claims (X causes Y, X leads to Y, X enables Y) from an artifact, producing a structured list of cause-effect pairs.
load-bearing-identificationIdentify which factors are "load-bearing walls" — factors whose removal would collapse the conclusion.
necessity-evaluationEvaluate the probability of necessity (PN) for a causal factor — would the conclusion fail if this factor were absent?
sufficiency-evaluationEvaluate the probability of sufficiency (PS) for a causal factor — would this factor alone be enough to produce the conclusion?