assumption-excavation

Research

Systematic extraction, challenge, and sensitivity analysis of assumptions underlying a decision to identify load-bearing beliefs.

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Assumption Excavation

A three-phase tactic that surfaces hidden assumptions, challenges each one adversarially, and maps which assumptions are load-bearing for the conclusion. Decisions often rest on unstated beliefs — this tactic makes them explicit and tests their strength.

Stages

Assumption Extraction — Systematically surface all assumptions underlying the decision, with confidence levels
Assumption Challenge — For each assumption, construct the strongest counter-argument and identify alternatives
Conclusion Sensitivity — Map which assumptions, if wrong, would change the conclusion

Available SOPs

SOP	Phase	Purpose
assumption-extraction	Extract	Surface hidden assumptions with confidence
assumption-challenge	Challenge	Attack each assumption adversarially
conclusion-sensitivity	Sensitivity	Map load-bearing assumptions

Execution Guidance

Extract minimum 5 assumptions per decision
Challenge ALL assumptions, not just obvious ones
Confidence levels: HIGH (>80%), MEDIUM (50-80%), LOW (<50%)
Critical assumption = conclusion changes if assumption is wrong
Focus mitigation efforts on critical + low-confidence assumptions

Minimum Yield

= 5 assumptions extracted with confidence levels
Challenge argument for each assumption
Alternative assumption for each (what if the opposite is true?)
Sensitivity map showing which assumptions are critical
List of critical assumptions requiring mitigation

Available SOPs

Optional, no fixed order; the final leaf is always a sop.

SOP	When to use
conclusion-sensitivity	Map which assumptions are load-bearing by assessing how the conclusion changes if each assumption fails.
convergence-assumption-challenge	Construct the strongest counter-argument against a specific assumption and propose alternatives.
convergence-assumption-extraction	Systematically surface hidden assumptions underlying a decision with confidence levels.