resource-envelope-estimation

Productivity

Estimate resources, budget, and timeline using parametric, analogous, and three-point (PERT) estimation methods.

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Resource Envelope Estimation

Purpose: Produce credible resource estimates for implementing a candidate. Combines parametric estimation (model-based), analogous estimation (reference-class), and three-point PERT estimation (optimistic/likely/pessimistic) to bound the resource envelope with quantified uncertainty.

When to use:

A candidate has passed initial readiness screening and needs resource scoping
Stakeholders need budget/timeline estimates to make investment decisions
You need to compare resource requirements across multiple candidates

Budget

Metric	Target
Estimate dimensions	>= 3 (time, cost, personnel)
Precision range	+/-30% initial, +/-10% refined
Reference analogies	>= 2 per estimate

State Ledger

Key	Type	Description
candidate	object	The candidate being estimated
parametric_estimate	object	Model-based estimate
analogous_estimate	object	Reference-class estimate
pert_estimate	object	Three-point estimate
envelope	object	Synthesized resource envelope
confidence_level	float	Confidence in the estimate

Available Tactics

Tactic	When
multi-dimensional-readiness-scan	When resource estimation requires understanding current maturity first
staged-gate-evaluation	When resources need to be estimated per stage gate

Available SOPs

SOP	Purpose
dimension-assessment	Assess resource dimension readiness
gate-criteria-definition	Define resource gates
feasibility-synthesis	Synthesize resource estimates into overall feasibility

Execution Guidance

Decompose the candidate into estimable work packages
For each work package, apply parametric estimation using known cost drivers
Identify >= 2 analogous projects and extract their actual resource consumption
Construct three-point estimates (optimistic, most likely, pessimistic) for each package
Synthesize into a resource envelope with confidence intervals
Flag any estimates with confidence < 0.5 for further investigation

Output Format

resource_envelope:
  candidate: <name>
  time:
    optimistic: <duration>
    likely: <duration>
    pessimistic: <duration>
    expected: <PERT weighted>
  cost:
    optimistic: <amount>
    likely: <amount>
    pessimistic: <amount>
    expected: <PERT weighted>
  personnel:
    roles: [{role, count, duration}]
    total_person_months: N
  analogies_used: [{project, relevance, actual_cost, actual_time}]
  confidence: 0.X
  precision_band: "+/-N%"
  key_assumptions: [...]

Available Tactics

Optional, no fixed order; the final leaf is always a sop.

Tactic	When to use
multi-dimensional-readiness-scan	Assess readiness across multiple dimensions, synthesize into radar visualization, and identify bottleneck dimensions.
staged-gate-evaluation	Define gate criteria for each stage, evaluate candidates at each gate, and render go/kill/recycle decisions with evidence.