china-thesis-tracker

china-thesis-tracker

Purpose

Track and maintain A股投资逻辑/thesis for portfolio positions and watchlist names, ensuring thesis validity is continuously monitored.

Data Sources

Primary: iFind MCP (Tier-1 付费) / AkShare MCP (Tier-2 免费备选)

get_quote(ticker)                        → Current price, valuation
get_historical_data(ticker)             → Price trajectory
get_financials(ticker, "income")         → Financial performance
# News (china-news MCP — separate server)
get_stock_news(ticker="{{TICKER}}")          → News affecting thesis
get_industry_stocks(industry="...")      → Peer context

Secondary Sources

• 巨潮公告 — corporate actions and filings
• 业绩说明会 — management commentary
• 券商研报 — analyst updates
• Wind / Choice — ownership and flow data

Workflow

Step 1: Define / Load Thesis

Thesis statement template:

公司：[Company]（[Ticker]）
行业：[Industry]
方向：[Long / Short / Watch]

核心投资逻辑 (3-5 bullet points):
1. [Key driver 1]
2. [Key driver 2]
3. [Key driver 3]

目标价：¥XX.XX (X% upside/downside)
时间 horizon：[6M / 1Y / 2Y]
置信度：[High / Medium / Low]

Thesis components:

Step 2: Track Key Data Points

Company-specific KPIs:

Financial metrics to track:

Market metrics:

Step 3: Monitor Catalysts

Catalyst checklist:

Catalyst outcome assessment:

• Confirming: Result supports thesis → increase conviction
• Neutral: Result as expected → maintain position
• Breaking: Result contradicts thesis → reduce/exit position

Step 4: Thesis Validity Check

Regular review questions:

1. Has the thesis changed?

   • Core drivers still intact?
   • New information adding to or subtracting from thesis?

2. Are assumptions still valid?

   • Key assumptions: still on track?
   • Any material change to underlying business?

3. Is the timing right?

   • Catalyst timeline progressing as expected?
   • Market pricing in the thesis?

4. Is the risk/reward still favorable?

   • Upside/downside ratio updated?
   • Entry price still reasonable?

5. Should thesis be adjusted?

   • Target price update
   • Risk factors added/removed
   • Time horizon extended/contracted

Step 5: Thesis Status

Status categories:

Step 6: Update Documentation

Thesis update log:

[公司] 投资逻辑更新 [Date]

一、当前状态：[Intact / Under pressure / Broken / Evolving]

二、本期间重要变化：
   - [Change 1]: [Impact on thesis]
   - [Change 2]: [Impact on thesis]

三、数据追踪：
   [Key metrics updated]

四、催化剂进展：
   [Catalyst status update]

五、决策：
   - [Maintain / Add / Reduce / Exit]
   - [Rationale]

六、后续关注：
   - [Next check-in date]
   - [Key metrics to watch]

Step 7: Portfolio-Level Review

Aggregate view:

Portfolio-level insights:

• Which theses are working? Common factors?
• Which theses are breaking? Common risks?
• Concentration risk (too many bets on similar thesis?)
• Hedge effectiveness ( shorts protecting longs?)

China-Specific Thesis Considerations

Common A-share Thesis Types

A-share Market Risks to Track

Typical A-share Thesis Lifecycle

Week 1-2: Initial idea, data gathering
Week 3-4: Thesis formation, model build
Week 5-8: Position establishment, catalyst tracking
Week 9-16: Thesis validation / adjustment
Week 17+: Outcome assessment, exit decision

Quality Checks

Before delivering thesis update:

• Thesis statement clear and specific
• Key assumptions listed and tracked
• Catalysts documented with dates
• Financial metrics current
• Price trajectory analyzed
• Risk factors updated
• Action recommendation clear
• Next review date set

Data Source Mode Switch: Set env var IFIND_DATA_SOURCE_MODE to control data source preference.

• ifind-only (strict): Use iFind only, error if unavailable
• ifind-fallback (default): iFind preferred, fallback to AkShare
• akshare-only: Skip iFind, use AkShare only