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siege-feasibility-assessment

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Use when evaluating siege feasibility or deciding whether to continue besieging a fortified city. Based on Xu Jia's advice against attacking Daliang (大梁) — systematically assessing defender strength, fortification quality, historical precedent, and cost of failure before committing.

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Siege Feasibility Assessment

Based on Xu Jia's advice against attacking Daliang.

Overview

Before committing to a siege, systematically evaluate the probability of success and risks of failure.

Steps

  1. Assess Defender Strength

    • Estimate number of defenders (e.g., 300,000)
    • Evaluate quality of fortifications (e.g., 7-ren high walls)
    • Consider defender morale and determination

  2. Calculate Historical Precedent

    • Would even legendary commanders succeed?
    • If answer is no, reconsider the attack

  3. Evaluate External Factors

    • Are allied forces approaching?
    • Will enemies attack your rear if you're committed?

  4. Consider Cost of Failure

    • What previous gains will be lost?
    • Will your own territory become vulnerable?

  5. Propose Alternative

    • Accept smaller gains now while enemy is uncertain
    • Let enemy allies become angry at being preempted
    • Benefit from their subsequent competition to serve you

Decision Criteria

  • If defenders significantly outnumber attackers: Do not besiege
  • If fortifications are formidable: Do not besiege
  • If failure means losing previous gains: Withdraw
  • If enemy is currently uncertain: Negotiate smaller gains

Expected Outcomes

  • Avoid costly failures
  • Secure achievable gains
  • Preserve forces for future campaigns

Validation

  1. Apply the historical precedent test honestly — if legendary commanders could not take the city with comparable forces, your chances are no better
  2. Verify that external factors (approaching allied forces, rear vulnerabilities) have been accounted for in the timeline
  3. Confirm the proposed alternative (accepting smaller gains) is genuinely achievable and not merely a face-saving retreat