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judge-long-distance-military-campaign

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Use when evaluating the feasibility of a long-distance surprise military attack. Assesses distance risks, intelligence reliability, supply line vulnerabilities, and contingency planning. Based on Qin's failed attack on Zheng as a cautionary example.

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Judge Long-Distance Military Campaign

Overview

A framework for evaluating surprise attacks on distant targets, recognizing inherent risks. Based on the failed Qin attack on Zheng.

Steps

  1. Receive Intelligence

    • Evaluate claims about target vulnerability
    • Consider the reliability of informants

  2. Assess Distance Factors

    • Calculate the distance to target
    • Consider how many territories must be crossed
    • Recognize that long-distance surprise attacks rarely succeed

  3. Consider Information Security

    • If someone is selling intelligence, they might also sell to your enemy
    • Assume the target may already be warned

  4. Consult Experienced Advisors

    • Seek opinions from those with military experience
    • Consider objections seriously rather than dismissing them

  5. Make the Decision

    • Weigh potential gains against high risks
    • Consider alternatives

  6. Prepare Contingencies

    • If proceeding, plan for discovery
    • Have alternative objectives if primary target is forewarned

Warning Signs

  • Informants offering to betray their own state may be unreliable
  • Long supply lines through multiple states create vulnerabilities
  • Overconfidence in secrecy often leads to disaster

Expected Outcomes

  • Avoided catastrophic defeats from overextended campaigns
  • Better allocation of military resources
  • Preserved forces for more achievable objectives

Validation

  • Verify that intelligence sources were evaluated for reliability and potential double-dealing before committing forces
  • Confirm that experienced military advisors were consulted and their objections formally considered
  • Check that contingency plans with alternative objectives exist in case the primary target is forewarned