choosing-a-forecaster

Development

Guides selection of the appropriate skforecast forecaster based on the user's data characteristics and requirements. Provides a decision matrix mapping use cases to forecaster classes. Use when the user is unsure which forecaster to use or asks for a recommendation.

QUICK START

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Choosing a Forecaster

When to Use This Skill

Use this skill when the user needs help choosing a forecaster, comparing forecaster types (recursive vs direct, single vs multi-series), or understanding which skforecast class fits their problem.

Related skills

After: forecasting-single-series (apply the chosen forecaster to one target series)
After: forecasting-multiple-series (apply the chosen forecaster to several series jointly)
After: autocorrelation-and-lag-selection (analyse the series dynamics before configuring lags)
After: feature-engineering (build the input feature set: calendar, rolling, exogenous)

Overview

Skforecast is a machine learning-first library. The ML forecasters are the primary tools; statistical models (ForecasterStats) and naive baselines (ForecasterEquivalentDate) serve as comparison benchmarks.

Step 1 — How Many Series?

Scenario	Go to
1 target series (with or without exogenous variables)	→ Step 2a
Multiple series to forecast simultaneously	→ Step 2b
Multiple series as drivers to predict one target	→ `ForecasterDirectMultiVariate`
Categorical target (e.g., low/medium/high)	→ `ForecasterRecursiveClassifier`

Step 2a — Single Series

Scenario	Recommended Forecaster	Why
General purpose (start here)	`ForecasterRecursive`	Default choice. One model, recursive multi-step. Works with any sklearn-compatible estimator (LightGBM, XGBoost, CatBoost, RandomForest, etc.). Supports lags, window features, exog, differentiation, transformers, weight functions, and all probabilistic prediction methods (bootstrapping, conformal, quantiles, distributions)
Horizon-dependent patterns (e.g., predicting at 1h vs 24h requires different relationships)	`ForecasterDirect`	Trains one independent model per step — no error propagation. Better when the predictive relationship changes significantly across the forecast horizon. Requires `steps` at init; parallelizable with `n_jobs`
Statistical baseline	`ForecasterStats`	Wraps ARIMA, SARIMAX, ETS, ARAR. Use as a benchmark to compare against ML models, or when the series is very short (< 200 obs) and ML overfits
Zero-shot / cold-start / no training data	`ForecasterFoundation`	Wraps pre-trained foundation models (Chronos-2, TimesFM 2.5, Moirai-2, TabICL, TabPFN-TS, TFC-T0). `fit()` only stores context — no training. Good baseline and cold-start option. See the `foundation-forecasting` skill
Naive baseline	`ForecasterEquivalentDate`	Predicts using equivalent past dates (e.g., same weekday last week). Use as a sanity-check baseline

Step 2b — Multiple Series

Scenario	Recommended Forecaster	Why
Forecast many series with a shared model (start here)	`ForecasterRecursiveMultiSeries`	One global model learns cross-series patterns. Supports DataFrame or dict input (dict allows series with different date ranges). Encoding options: `'ordinal'` (default), `'ordinal_category'`, `'onehot'`, `None`. Supports per-series transformers, per-series differentiation, series_weights
Other series are features for one target	`ForecasterDirectMultiVariate`	All series become input features to predict a single `level`. Per-series lags via dict (`{'sales': [1,7], 'price': [1]}`). One model per step — no error propagation
Deep learning / complex nonlinear patterns	`ForecasterRnn`	Keras-based RNN/LSTM/GRU. Single model outputs all steps and levels simultaneously via 3D tensors. Only conformal intervals (no bootstrapping). Requires keras
Zero-shot / pre-trained generalist	`ForecasterFoundation`	Global zero-shot forecasts via Chronos-2 / TimesFM 2.5 / Moirai-2 / TabICL / TabPFN-TS / TFC-T0. `fit()` only stores context. Native quantile intervals. Chronos-2, TabICL, TabPFN-TS, and TFC-T0 support exog; TimesFM 2.5 & Moirai-2 do not. See the `foundation-forecasting` skill

Decision Flowchart

How many series?
│
├─► 1 series
│   │
│   ├─► Is it a classification problem? ──► Yes ──► ForecasterRecursiveClassifier
│   │
│   └─► Regression (continuous target)
│       │
│       ├─► Does the forecast relationship change across the horizon?
│       │   ├─► No / Unsure ──► ForecasterRecursive  ← START HERE
│       │   └─► Yes (step-specific patterns) ──► ForecasterDirect
│       │
│       └─► Compare with baselines:
│           ├─► ForecasterStats (Auto-ARIMA, ETS) as statistical benchmark
│           └─► ForecasterEquivalentDate as naive benchmark
│
└─► Multiple series
    │
    ├─► Want to forecast ALL series (global model)?
    │   └─► ForecasterRecursiveMultiSeries  ← START HERE
    │
    ├─► Want to use other series AS FEATURES for one target?
    │   └─► ForecasterDirectMultiVariate
    │
    └─► Need deep learning for very complex patterns?
        └─► ForecasterRnn

Zero-shot / no training data / cold-start (single or multi-series)?
    └─► ForecasterFoundation (Chronos-2 / TimesFM 2.5 / Moirai-2 / TabICL / TabPFN-TS / TFC-T0)

Key Comparisons

Recursive vs Direct (Single Series)

Aspect	ForecasterRecursive	ForecasterDirect
Models trained	1	N (one per step)
Error propagation	Yes (predictions feed into next step)	No (each step uses only observed data)
Forecast horizon	Flexible (any `steps` at predict time)	Fixed at init (`steps` required)
Training speed	Fast (one model)	Slower (N models, parallelizable via `n_jobs`)
Memory	Lower (1 estimator)	Higher (N estimators stored in `estimators_` dict)
Best for	Most cases, especially short-to-medium horizons	Long horizons where patterns change per step
Prediction intervals	Bootstrapping + conformal	Bootstrapping + conformal

RecursiveMultiSeries vs DirectMultiVariate (Multiple Series)

Aspect	ForecasterRecursiveMultiSeries	ForecasterDirectMultiVariate
Goal	Forecast all series with one model	Use all series as features for one target
Input	DataFrame or dict of Series	DataFrame (all series as columns)
Target	All series (selected via `levels`)	One series (specified via `level`)
Strategy	Recursive (1 model, predictions feed back)	Direct (1 model per step, no error propagation)
Series identification	Encoding: `'ordinal'`, `'ordinal_category'`, `'onehot'`, `None`	All series create separate lag columns
Series with different ranges	Yes (via dict input)	No (all must share same range)
Per-series lags	No (same lags for all)	Yes (dict: `{'sales': [1,7], 'price': [1]}`)
Series weights	Yes (`series_weights` param)	No
Per-series transformers	Yes (`transformer_series` dict)	Yes (`transformer_series` dict)
Per-series differentiation	Yes (`differentiation` dict)	Yes (via `differentiator_` per series)

ML Forecasters vs Statistical Models

Aspect	ML Forecasters	ForecasterStats
Primary role	Main forecasting tools	Comparison baseline
Best for	Medium-to-large datasets, complex patterns, many exogenous features	Short series, interpretability, parametric intervals
Estimators	Any sklearn-compatible (LightGBM, XGBoost, RF, etc.)	Arima, Sarimax, Ets, Arar
Lags / window features	Full support (`lags`, `RollingFeatures`)	No (model handles its own structure)
Differentiation	Built-in (`differentiation` param)	Handled within model (e.g., ARIMA `d` parameter)
Exogenous variables	Full support	Only SARIMAX
Prediction intervals	Bootstrapping (binned residuals) + conformal	Built-in parametric
Tuning	`grid_search_forecaster`, `random_search_forecaster`, `bayesian_search_forecaster`	`grid_search_stats`, `random_search_stats`
Backtesting	`backtesting_forecaster` / `backtesting_forecaster_multiseries`	`backtesting_stats`
Feature selection	`select_features` / `select_features_multiseries`	Not applicable

Feature Support Matrix

Feature	Recursive	Direct	RecursiveMultiSeries	DirectMultiVariate	Rnn	Stats	EquivalentDate	Classifier
Lags	✓	✓	✓	✓ (per-series dict)	✓	—	—	✓
Window features (`RollingFeatures`)	✓	✓	✓	✓	—	—	—	✓
Exogenous variables	✓	✓	✓	✓	✓	SARIMAX only	—	✓
Differentiation	✓	✓	✓ (per-series)	✓ (per-series)	—	Within model	—	—
Transformer y/series	✓	✓	✓ (per-series)	✓ (per-series)	✓	✓	—	—
Transformer exog	✓	✓	✓	✓	✓	✓	—	✓
Weight function	✓	✓	✓ (per-series)	✓	—	—	—	✓
Bootstrapping intervals	✓	✓	✓	✓	—	—	—	—
Conformal intervals	✓	✓	✓	✓	✓	—	✓	—
Binned residuals	✓	✓	✓	✓	✓	—	✓	—
Quantile predictions	✓	✓	✓	✓	—	—	—	—
Distribution fitting	✓	✓	✓	✓	—	—	—	—
Class probabilities	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	✓
Feature importances	✓	✓	✓	✓	—	—	—	—

Legend: ✓ = supported, — = not supported/not applicable.

Quick Start Recommendations

Once you have chosen a forecaster, follow these steps to get started:

Define your problem: 1 series → ForecasterRecursive; multiple series → ForecasterRecursiveMultiSeries
Choose an estimator: LightGBM (LGBMRegressor) is the best starting point — fast, handles categoricals, good defaults
Add features: Use RollingFeatures (rolling mean, std, min, max) and CalendarFeatures or create_calendar_features as exogenous variables
Handle non-stationarity: Use the differentiation parameter instead of manual differencing
Evaluate with backtesting: backtesting_forecaster + TimeSeriesFold for realistic multi-step evaluation
Tune hyperparameters: bayesian_search_forecaster (Optuna-based) — can include lags in the search space
Add prediction intervals: predict_interval(method='bootstrapping', use_binned_residuals=True) for uncertainty quantification
Compare with baselines: Use ForecasterStats (Auto-ARIMA: Arima(order=None)) and ForecasterEquivalentDate to verify the ML model adds value