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yao-gametheory-skill

Business
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Route CEO-facing competition, negotiation, channel, pricing, platform, M&A, financing, competitor-response, alliance, and regulator problems through an applied game-theory framework router when decisions depend on opponent reactions, credible commitments, signals, payoff/equilibrium logic, historical behavior, dynamic updates, or Markdown/HTML/Word/PDF report export. Do not use for textbook tutoring, proofs, gambling, generic brainstorming, or final legal/financial/regulatory advice.

QUICK START

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Source SKILL.md: https://github.com/yaojingang/yao-open-skills/blob/HEAD/skills/yao-gametheory-skill/SKILL.md

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Yao Game Theory Skill

Use This Skill For

  • convert CEO-facing strategic interactions into game theory reports
  • choose and combine game theory frameworks from references/framework-catalog.md
  • answer "对手可能怎么反应" and "我们的承诺动作是否可信"
  • use historical behavior and reference-class experience to adjust rationality and commitment probabilities
  • update prior reports when a player makes a new move
  • export synchronized Markdown, HTML, Word/DOCX, and PDF reports

Do Not Route Here

  • game theory homework, theorem proofs, or textbook explanation with no strategic report
  • generic strategy brainstorming where no player can react strategically
  • final legal, financial, investment, antitrust, or regulatory advice
  • manipulative, deceptive, coercive, or unlawful competitive tactics

Default Workflow

  1. Convert the request with references/intake-contract.md; use references/dynamic-iteration-loop.md for incomplete input or later player moves.
  2. Route through references/framework-catalog.md: select one primary framework and 2-4 secondary lenses.
  3. Instantiate the combination with references/game-model-playbook.md: players, strategies, payoffs, timing, beliefs, and equilibrium logic.
  4. Calibrate player rationality with real historical behavior and experience references before trusting payoff-matrix inference.
  5. Test commitments and signals with references/commitment-signal-checklist.md.
  6. Run references/strategic-hygiene-checklist.md, references/strategy-readiness-loop.md, and references/sensitivity-and-safety.md.
  7. Build framework selection, opponent reactions, payoff matrix, historical behavior calibration, readiness, sensitivity, next information, and update triggers.
  8. Run scripts/generate_report_bundle.py; finalize with references/strategic-report-contract.md and references/report-export-pipeline.md.

Output Contract

  • Produce an executive strategy report, not a theory lecture.
  • Put the recommendation, opponent reaction forecast, and credible-commitment call before technical sections.
  • Mark payoffs, probabilities, and assumptions as observed, estimated, or assumed.
  • Include frameworks, payoff matrix, reactions, equilibria, historical rationality calibration, commitment/signal checks, readiness, sensitivity, next information, update log, triggers, and caveats.
  • Default language is Simplified Chinese; generate PDF automatically when possible, otherwise keep HTML print-ready.

Reference Map

  • references/intake-contract.md: request-to-game-brief conversion
  • references/framework-catalog.md: game theory framework library and AI application router
  • references/game-model-playbook.md: players, strategies, payoffs, timing, equilibrium reasoning
  • references/commitment-signal-checklist.md: credibility and signal-quality checks
  • references/dynamic-iteration-loop.md: multi-turn and opponent-update loop
  • references/strategy-readiness-loop.md: readiness score and remaining-gap loop
  • references/strategic-hygiene-checklist.md: strategic assumption hygiene checks
  • references/sensitivity-and-safety.md: stress tests and safety boundaries
  • references/strategic-report-contract.md: required report sections and schema alignment
  • references/report-export-pipeline.md: artifact generation and print/PDF rules
  • scripts/generate_report_bundle.py: report builder and exporter
  • templates/report.schema.json: structured report schema
  • evals/trigger_cases.json: route positives, negatives, and near-neighbor cases