write-memo

Write Investment Memo Skill

Produces a buyside-quality investment memo as a self-contained HTML file. The memo is opinionated and falsifiable — it leads with a variant view and steelmans the bear case. The output is the deliverable; the chat response is just a header summary plus the file path.

Workflow Checklist

Copy and track progress:

Investment Memo Progress:
- [ ] Step 1: Frame the trade (direction, horizon, variant view)
- [ ] Step 2: Gather data (financials, market, filings)
- [ ] Step 3: Build Bear / Base / Bull scenarios
- [ ] Step 4: Optional DCF anchor for base case
- [ ] Step 5: Draft memo content (fill all slots)
- [ ] Step 6: Self-critique pass
- [ ] Step 7: Render HTML to .dexter/memos/
- [ ] Step 8: Report header summary + file path

Step 1: Frame the Trade

Confirm or ask for the following before drafting:

• Ticker (required)
• Direction: long or short (required)
• Horizon: 3mo / 6mo / 12mo / 2yr+ (default 12mo if not specified)
• Conviction: high / medium / low (default medium)
• Variant view: one sentence — what the analyst sees that consensus doesn't

If the user does not provide a variant view: do not ask repeatedly. Gather data in Step 2 first, then derive a candidate variant view from where your model meaningfully diverges from consensus (e.g., "our '27 EPS is $X vs consensus $Y because [driver]"). Present it as a draft and let the analyst accept, refine, or replace before you proceed to Step 5.

Step 2: Gather Data (Parallel)

Issue these tool calls in parallel:

2.1 Financials

Call get_financials:

• "[TICKER] annual income statements last 5 years" — revenue, operating income, net income, EPS, margins
• "[TICKER] annual cash flow statements last 5 years" — operating CF, capex, FCF
• "[TICKER] latest balance sheet" — debt, cash, shares outstanding
• "[TICKER] financial metrics snapshot" — P/E, EV, ROIC, FCF growth, debt/equity, margins
• "[TICKER] segmented financials" — segment revenue, segment margins (if multi-segment)
• "[TICKER] earnings history last 8 quarters" — beats/misses, surprises
• "[TICKER] company facts" — sector, industry, market cap
• "[TICKER] KPI guidance" and "[TICKER] KPI metrics" — management-provided KPIs and guidance

2.2 Market & Ownership

Call get_market_data:

• "[TICKER] price snapshot" — current price, 52-week range, market cap
• "[TICKER] historical prices last 12 months" — for return / multiple compression context
• "[TICKER] insider trades last 6 months" — recent buys/sells, dollar amounts
• "[TICKER] institutional holdings" — top holders, recent additions / reductions
• "[TICKER] news last 30 days" — recent material events

2.3 Filings

Call read_filings:

• Most recent 10-K Item 1 (Business) — for business snapshot language
• Most recent 10-K Item 1A (Risk Factors) — to source risks from the company itself
• Most recent 10-Q — recent quarterly trajectory

2.4 Memory (optional)

Call memory_search with the ticker — surfaces any prior notes, prior memos, or user-provided constraints (e.g., risk tolerance, sector exposure already in book).

2.5 Sentiment (optional, only if time-sensitive)

Call x_search for recent material chatter on the ticker. Skip if the thesis is fundamental and not catalyst-driven this week.

Step 3: Build Scenarios

Construct Bear / Base / Bull scenarios. Each scenario is driver-based, not a single number pulled from the air.

For each scenario specify:

• Revenue growth (forecast year, 2-3 years out)
• EBIT / operating margin at that point
• Exit multiple (P/E, EV/EBITDA, or EV/Sales as appropriate for the sector)
• Probability weight (the three must sum to 100%)
• Price target (derived from the above)
• Return vs. current price (with sign)

Then compute:

• Probability-weighted return = sum(prob × return) across scenarios
• Upside / downside ratio = |bull return| / |bear return|

Asymmetry check: if upside/downside < 2x, flag this prominently. A weak-asymmetry setup is a coin flip, not a trade. Either revise the scenarios honestly, or note the weak asymmetry in the memo (do not hide it).

Step 4: Optional DCF Anchor

For base case, optionally invoke the dcf-valuation skill via the skill tool to produce an intrinsic value anchor. Use it as a cross-check against your base-case price target, not as a replacement.

Step 5: Draft Memo Content

Read the template and style guide:

• memo-template.html
• memo-style.md
• examples.md — pattern-match tone and density

Fill every slot. Slots are listed in the template — do not skip any. Slot-specific guidance:

{{variant_view}}

Three sentences max. Lead with the divergence from consensus: what we see, why we think it, why the market hasn't priced it. If the user did not provide one, this is where your derived candidate goes.

{{thesis_bullets}}

3-5 bullets, each in this format:

[Claim] — [Evidence with a specific number]. Wrong if [observable falsifier].

Example:

Ad-tier reaches 15% of subs by '27 — Q1 disclosed 40M ad-tier subs (+85% YoY) on a 270M base; trajectory implies 15% mix at constant adds. Wrong if ad-tier ARPU compresses below $8 due to inventory glut.

Each bullet must be falsifiable. No "great management", "strong moat", "wide TAM" without a specific operational metric behind it.

{{business_snapshot}}

4-5 lines max. What they sell, how they make money, segment mix, unit economics that matter for the thesis. No founding-year boilerplate. Pull verbatim from the 10-K Item 1 where it tightens the language.

{{whats_priced_in}}

Current multiple, implied growth or margin assumption embedded in that multiple, sellside consensus numbers (revenue, EPS for FY+1 and FY+2). Then one sentence on where your model diverges and by how much.

{{scenario_table}}

Render as an HTML table. Columns: Bear / Base / Bull. Rows: Probability, Revenue growth (FY27), EBIT margin (FY27), Exit multiple, Price target, Return. Color returns: positive class="pos", negative class="neg".

{{bull_narrative}}, {{base_narrative}}, {{bear_narrative}}

One paragraph each (3-5 sentences). Each is a coherent world, not a list of factors:

• Bull: what has to be true. Specific operational wins that compound. Tied to evidence we'd see in quarterly data.
• Base: the thesis playing out as written.
• Bear: steelmanned — written as if you believed it. Specific competitive losses, customer concentration risk materializing, multiple compression to a lower peer group. If the bear paragraph reads weaker than the bull paragraph, rewrite it.

{{catalysts_table}}

Table with columns: Event, Date / Quarter, Expected Impact. 3-5 entries. Dates should be specific (Q3 '26, Aug '26 earnings, Investor Day Nov '26).

{{risks_table}}

Table with columns: Risk, Mitigant, Tripwire. The tripwire is the observable data point that would invalidate the thesis (e.g., "Q3 ad-tier ARPU prints below $8", "top customer renewal pushed past Q4"). Tripwires distinguish a hedge fund memo from a sellside report.

{{position_management}}

Three short lines: suggested sizing (% NAV) anchored to conviction × asymmetry; entry price (current or limit); stop level or scale-out trigger.

{{monitoring_kpis}}

3-5 KPIs to track quarterly. These are the metrics that confirm or kill the thesis — not generic ones (revenue growth, EPS) but specific ones tied to your variant view.

Step 6: Self-Critique Pass (Mandatory)

Before rendering, verify every check. If any fail, revise the relevant section before continuing.

1. Variant view is actually variant. Not a restatement of consensus dressed up as a view. The test: can you point to specific sellside notes / consensus numbers your view contradicts?
2. Every thesis bullet is falsifiable. Each has a "wrong if" clause naming a specific observable.
3. Numbers behind every adjective. No "strong growth" without the bps / %. No "expanding margins" without the basis point delta.
4. Bear case is steelmanned. Read the bear paragraph aloud. If it reads weaker than the bull, rewrite.
5. Asymmetry ≥ 2x. If not, the memo flags this in the header rather than hiding it.
6. Probability weights sum to 100%.
7. Tripwires are observable. Each risk has a data point an analyst could watch for, not a vibe.

Step 7: Render HTML

1. Read memo-template.html via read_file
2. Replace every {{slot}} placeholder with the content you drafted
3. Set {{date}} to today's date in YYYY-MM-DD format
4. Set {{analyst}} from memory if known, otherwise blank
5. Write to .dexter/memos/[TICKER]_[DIRECTION]_[YYYY-MM-DD].html via write_file
   • Direction is LONG or SHORT (uppercase)
   • Example: .dexter/memos/NFLX_LONG_2026-05-24.html
6. Only write a .md source file if the user explicitly requested one

The path uses forward slashes. The write_file tool will create the .dexter/memos/ directory if it does not exist.

Step 8: Report to Chat

Final chat response should be exactly this format and nothing more:

[TICKER] · [LONG/SHORT] · Target $X (+Y% / -Y%) · Asymmetry [N.Nx] · [Conviction]

Memo saved to .dexter/memos/[FILENAME].html
Open with: open .dexter/memos/[FILENAME].html

Do not paste the full memo content into the chat. The file is the deliverable. The chat output is a scannable header.

Critical Don'ts

• Do not paste the full memo as a chat response in addition to writing the file
• Do not write a .md file alongside unless explicitly requested
• Do not include charts, sparklines, scenario bars, or any visual element beyond tables
• Do not add emoji anywhere — not in the memo, not in the chat response
• Do not include a prominent "AI-generated" footer or branding
• Do not skip the self-critique pass in Step 6
• Do not invent consensus numbers — if you do not have them from a tool call, say so in the memo