temporal-sequencing

Business

Determine optimal ordering and phasing of portfolio investments using Real Options, Critical path, Dependency graph, and Staged investment methods.

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Temporal Sequencing

Purpose

Determine the optimal order, timing, and phasing of portfolio elements when dependencies, learning effects, and option value make sequencing matter as much as selection.

When to use

Candidates have dependencies (A must precede B)
Early investments create options for later ones
Information gained from early bets informs later decisions
Budget is released in phases over time
Timing affects value (first-mover advantage, market windows)

Budget

Dimension	Target
Candidates sequenced	8-20
Time periods modeled	3-6 phases
Dependencies mapped	all critical
Decision points identified	>=2 stage-gates

State Ledger

Field	Type	Description
candidates	list	Candidates with timing attributes
dependencies	graph	Precedence relationships between candidates
phases	list	Time periods with budget allocations
option_values	list	Value of information/flexibility from early bets
sequence	list	Ordered plan with stage-gates

Available Tactics

Tactic	When
pareto-frontier-construction	Trading off speed vs cost vs risk in sequencing
scenario-stress-testing	Testing sequence robustness under timeline uncertainty

Available SOPs

SOP	Purpose
objective-definition	Define sequencing objectives and constraints
optimization-run	Find optimal sequences
scenario-construction	Model timeline uncertainties
portfolio-evaluation-per-scenario	Test sequence under delays/accelerations
portfolio-synthesis	Synthesize robust sequence recommendation

Execution Guidance

Map dependencies and precedence constraints
Identify option value — which early investments create future flexibility
Define phase budgets and stage-gate criteria
Optimize sequence considering dependencies, option value, and constraints
Stress-test sequence against timeline uncertainties
Build staged investment plan with decision points

Output Format

strategy: temporal-sequencing
sequence:
  - phase: 1
    candidates: [<name1>, <name2>]
    budget: <amount>
    stage_gate: <criteria for proceeding>
  - phase: 2
    candidates: [<name3>]
    budget: <amount>
    depends_on: [<phase 1 outcomes>]
critical_path: [<ordered candidates>]
option_values:
  - candidate: <name>
    options_created: [<future possibilities>]
method_used: <real-options|critical-path|staged-investment>

Available Tactics

Optional, no fixed order; the final leaf is always a sop.

Tactic	When to use
pareto-frontier-construction	Build the Pareto frontier from multi-objective optimization, visualize trade-offs, and select a portfolio from non-dominated solutions.
scenario-stress-testing	Construct distinct future scenarios, evaluate portfolio performance under each, and identify vulnerabilities and robustness characteristics.

Available SOPs

Optional, no fixed order; the final leaf is always a sop.

SOP	When to use
objective-definition	Define optimization objectives, constraints, and trade-off preferences from context and candidate information.
optimization-run	Execute multi-objective optimization on candidates to produce a Pareto front of non-dominated solutions.
portfolio-evaluation-per-scenario	Evaluate a specific portfolio's performance metrics and vulnerabilities under a given scenario.
portfolio-synthesis	Synthesize all per-scenario evaluations into a final portfolio recommendation with robustness score and actionable guidance.
scenario-construction	Construct distinct future scenarios spanning key uncertainties for portfolio stress testing.