temporal-scenario

Business

How does it evolve over time? — Short/medium/long-term timeline projection with technology maturity curves

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Strategy: Temporal Scenario

Methodology

Temporal Scenario Planning with Technology Maturity Curves. Project how the research landscape evolves across multiple time horizons (short: 6 months, medium: 2 years, long: 5+ years). Map technology S-curves, adoption dynamics, and paradigm shift timing.

Key principles:

Multi-horizon: Separate analysis for short, medium, and long term
S-curve awareness: Technologies follow predictable maturity patterns
Paradigm sensitivity: Identify potential paradigm shifts and their timing
Path dependency: Current decisions constrain future options

Execution Flow

Identify temporal drivers → spawn scenario-driver-identification
- Input: research context, focus on time-dependent factors
- Output: drivers with temporal dynamics (maturation rates, adoption curves)
Project timelines → spawn timeline-projection
- Input: temporal drivers, current maturity levels
- Output: multi-horizon projections with uncertainty bands
Construct temporal narratives → spawn scenario-narrative-construction (×3 horizons)
- Input: timeline projections, horizon-specific drivers
- Output: narrative per time horizon
Assess impact → spawn scenario-impact-assessment (per horizon)
- Input: temporal narrative, research approach, decision timing
- Output: time-dependent impact analysis
Score robustness → spawn robustness-scoring
- Input: all temporal assessments
- Output: temporal robustness index, optimal timing windows
Synthesize → spawn scenario-synthesis
- Input: temporal scenarios, timing recommendations
- Output: temporal strategy with decision points

Budget Gate

Step	Token Budget	Notes
Driver identification	8K	Time-dynamics focused
Timeline projection	15K	Multi-horizon + S-curves
Narrative construction	12K × 3	Per horizon
Impact assessment	10K × 3	Per horizon
Robustness scoring	10K	Temporal sensitivity
Synthesis	12K	Timing recommendations

Available Tactics

Optional, no fixed order; the final leaf is always a sop.

Tactic	When to use
strategy-robustness-testing	Orchestrates impact assessment and robustness scoring to evaluate research approach resilience across scenarios

Available SOPs

Optional, no fixed order; the final leaf is always a sop.

SOP	When to use
robustness-scoring	Compute robustness index across scenarios with sensitivity analysis
scenario-driver-identification	Identify key uncertainty drivers using PESTEL framework scanning
scenario-impact-assessment	Assess each scenario's impact on the research approach across multiple dimensions
scenario-narrative-construction	Build rich narratives for surviving morphological configurations using Shell method
scenario-synthesis	Comprehensive scenario analysis report synthesizing all scenario work
timeline-projection	Extrapolate research landscape timelines using trend analysis and milestone projection