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strategic-cost-benefit-analysis

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Use when evaluating whether a military action inadvertently strengthens rivals or when analyzing second-order strategic consequences. Based on Hu Yan's advice against attacking Pu — assessing whether success helps your enemies more than yourself and recommending alternatives when it does.

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Strategic Cost-Benefit Analysis

Based on Hu Yan's advice against attacking Pu.

Overview

Before attacking a target, analyze whether success helps or harms your strategic position.

Steps

  1. Identify the Target's Strategic Value

    • What does the target provide to whom?
    • Example: Pu is vital to Wei's independence

  2. Analyze Consequences of Success

    • If you capture the target, who benefits?
    • Will success strengthen a rival?
    • Example: Capturing Pu would force Wei to submit to your rival (Wei)

  3. Evaluate Secondary Effects

    • How will power balance shift?
    • Will a weakened party become stronger through consolidation?

  4. Consider Ruler's Perception

    • Will this action be seen as helping or harming the state?
    • Ruler will judge based on outcomes, not intentions

  5. Recommend Alternative

    • If action harms your interests, propose alternative
    • Find way to gain credit without negative consequences

Decision Framework

  • If action helps enemy more than you: Do not proceed
  • If action strengthens rival state: Do not proceed
  • If ruler will blame you for consequences: Do not proceed

Expected Outcomes

  • Avoid strategic mistakes
  • Maintain ruler's favor
  • Prevent unintended strengthening of rivals

Validation

  1. Map the full chain of consequences: target capture leads to which power shift, which forces which consolidation, which benefits whom — if the chain ends at a rival's gain, do not proceed
  2. Verify the alternative proposal genuinely serves state interests and is not merely a face-saving inaction plan
  3. Confirm the ruler's perception has been considered — will the ruler credit you for wisdom in restraint, or blame you for missed opportunity?