earnings-watch
BusinessQuick post-earnings analysis for portfolio holdings. Beat/miss, key metrics, thesis impact, estimate revision. Triggers on "earnings update", "quarterly results", "Q1/Q2/Q3/Q4 results", "post-earnings".
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Earnings Watch
Fast-turnaround post-earnings analysis focused on thesis impact. NOT a full initiation report — assumes you already know the company.
Step 1: Data Collection
CRITICAL: Training data is outdated. ALWAYS search for current data.
- Write down today's date
- Web search: "[Company] latest earnings results [current year]"
- Verify earnings release date is within last 3 months
- Collect: earnings release, 10-Q/10-K, call transcript, guidance
For CEDEARs: fetch the underlying US company's earnings, then calculate impact on CEDEAR price considering CCL.
Step 2: Beat/Miss Analysis
| Metric | Consensus | Actual | Delta | Beat/Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $ / % | |||
| EPS | $ / % | |||
| [Key metric 1] | ||||
| [Key metric 2] |
Lead with the headline: "AAPL Q3: Revenue beat by $2.1B (+3%), EPS beat by $0.12 (+8%)"
Step 3: Key Takeaways
3-5 bullet points, prioritized by thesis relevance:
- What was NEW (not rehashing known info)
- What management said about forward guidance
- Any change in capital allocation (buybacks, dividends, capex)
- Segment/geography surprises
Step 4: Thesis Impact
Map results to thesis pillars:
| Pillar | Pre-Earnings Status | Post-Earnings Impact | Updated Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Strengthened/Weakened/Unchanged |
Verdict: Thesis intact / Thesis weakened / Thesis broken
Step 5: Estimate Revision
| Metric | Old Estimate | New Estimate | Change | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY Revenue | ||||
| FY EPS | ||||
| Target Price |
Step 6: Action
- Rating change: Maintain / Upgrade / Downgrade
- Position action: Hold / Add on dip / Trim / Exit
- Conviction: High / Medium / Low
- Next catalyst: [event + date]
Output Format
Concise markdown. 500-1000 words max. Tables for data, prose for analysis.
═══ EARNINGS WATCH: [TICKER] Q[N] [YEAR] ═══
Headline: [beat/miss summary]
Thesis impact: [intact/weakened/broken]
Action: [hold/add/trim/exit]
Next catalyst: [event on date]
Notes
- Speed over depth — publish within 24h of earnings
- If earnings are from a CEDEAR underlying, include CCL-adjusted impact
- Always cite source and date for every number
- If guidance was lowered, that's more important than the backward-looking beat