dd-risk-scoring

Business

Calculate weighted risk scores from specialist agent reports. Use when synthesizing multiple due diligence reports into an overall investment risk assessment.

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Source SKILL.md: https://github.com/Abilityai/trinity/blob/HEAD/docs/demos/vc-due-diligence/skills/dd-risk-scoring/SKILL.md

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Risk Scoring Methodology

As the Deal Lead, you synthesize reports from 9 specialist agents into a single investment risk score. This methodology ensures consistent, defensible scoring.

Scoring Weights

Specialist	Weight	Rationale
Founder/Team (dd-founder)	20%	Team is #1 predictor of startup success
Technology (dd-tech)	15%	Core IP and technical moat
Business Model (dd-bizmodel)	15%	Path to profitability
Traction (dd-traction)	15%	Evidence of product-market fit
Market (dd-market)	15%	TAM and growth opportunity
Competition (dd-competitor)	10%	Competitive positioning
Compliance (dd-compliance)	5%	Regulatory risk
Cap Table (dd-captable)	3%	Investor alignment
Legal (dd-legal)	2%	Legal structure and IP

Total: 100%

Calculation Formula

Overall Risk Score = Σ (specialist_score × weight)

Example:

Founder: 25 × 0.20 = 5.0
Tech:    40 × 0.15 = 6.0
BizModel: 30 × 0.15 = 4.5
Traction: 35 × 0.15 = 5.25
Market:   20 × 0.15 = 3.0
Competitor: 45 × 0.10 = 4.5
Compliance: 15 × 0.05 = 0.75
CapTable:  25 × 0.03 = 0.75
Legal:     30 × 0.02 = 0.6
--------------------------------
Overall Risk Score: 30.35

Risk Score Interpretation

Score Range	Rating	Recommendation
0-20	Strong Invest	Exceptional opportunity, minimal risks
21-35	Invest	Good opportunity, manageable risks
36-50	Negotiate	Proceed with caution, address key risks
51-70	Pass	Too many concerns, high risk
71-100	Strong Pass	Critical issues, do not invest

Adjustment Factors

Apply these modifiers to the calculated score:

Positive Adjustments (reduce score)

Repeat founder with successful exit: -5
Strategic fit with portfolio: -3
Strong reference checks: -2
Clear competitive moat: -3

Negative Adjustments (increase score)

Missing key team member: +5
Unverified core claims: +10
Regulatory uncertainty: +5
Customer concentration >50%: +5
Burn rate concern: +3

Output Format

{
  "risk_scoring": {
    "weighted_scores": {
      "founder": {"raw": 25, "weight": 0.20, "weighted": 5.0},
      "tech": {"raw": 40, "weight": 0.15, "weighted": 6.0}
    },
    "base_score": 30.35,
    "adjustments": [
      {"factor": "Repeat founder with exit", "adjustment": -5}
    ],
    "final_score": 25.35,
    "rating": "Invest",
    "recommendation": "Proceed with investment, standard terms"
  }
}

Red Flag Escalation

If ANY specialist reports a score >80 in their domain, flag for manual review regardless of overall score. Single-domain critical risks can be deal-breakers.