china-returns-analysis

Business

IRR and MOIC analysis for China-focused private equity and investment funds. Adapted from the original returns-analysis skill for RMB/USD fund structures, China market conventions, and Chinese portfolio companies. Triggers on "A股基金回报", "IRR分析", "returns China", "MOIC analysis China", "基金业绩分析", or "portfolio returns review".

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china-returns-analysis

Purpose

Analyze and report on 中国私募基金回报表现 using IRR, MOIC, and related metrics.

Key Metrics

Core Metrics (Same as Global)

Metric	Formula	Benchmark
IRR (Internal Rate of Return)	Discounted cash flow rate	15-20%+ for top China PE
MOIC (Multiple on Invested Capital)	Total returned / Total invested	2.0-3.0x typical
TVPI (Total Value to Paid-In)	(Distributed + NAV) / Paid-in	>2.0x target
DPI (Distributed to Paid-In)	Distributions / Paid-in	0.5-1.0x early stage
RVPI (Residual Value to Paid-In)	NAV / Paid-in	>1.0x for active funds

China-Specific Metrics

Metric	Description	Benchmark
人民币IRR	Returns in CNY	12-18% for quality funds
美元IRR	Returns in USD (hedged/unhedged)	15-25%
项目回报	Per-investment IRR/MOIC	20-30% IRR target
基金回报	Fund-level IRR	Top quartile: 20%+
现金回款	Distributions received	Annual yield target

Data Sources (Multi-Tier)

Tier 0 — 万得 Wind（最全面付费数据）

覆盖：A股/港美股/基金/指数/债券/宏观/研报/分析（44个工具）
MCP 服务：wind-mcp（需 WIND_API_KEY 密钥，以 ak_ 开头）
优势：全市场覆盖面最广、数据最全面、包含研报和量化分析
密钥申请：https://aifinmarket.wind.com.cn/#/home

Tier 1 - iFind (paid)

When IFIND_AUTH_TOKEN is configured, iFind is the preferred data source. For equivalent iFind tools, see china-market-data skill.

Primary Sources

Data	Source	Notes
基金估值报告	Fund administrator	Monthly/quarterly NAV
投资项目数据	Portfolio company reports	Financials, valuations
交易文件	Investment agreements	Deal terms, waterfalls
清科 / 投中	Industry data	Benchmark comparisons

Secondary Sources

巨潮 — public portfolio company filings
AkShare — market data for public holdings
交易所 — trading data

Workflow

Step 1: Fund-Level Summary

Fund overview table:

Fund	Vintage	Size (亿)	Committed	Called	Distributed	NAV	TVPI	IRR
Fund I	2018	30
Fund II	2021	50

Step 2: Portfolio-Level Analysis

By investment:

Investment	Date	Cost (亿)	Fair Value (亿)	MOIC	IRR	Status
						Active / Exited / Written off

Step 3: Vintage Analysis

Vintage year performance:

Vintage	IRR	MOIC	# Deals	# Exits	TVPI

Benchmark comparison:

vs 沪深300
vs 中国PE/VC指数 (if available)
vs peer fund performance

Step 4: Sector Analysis

Returns by sector:

Sector	Invested (亿)	Realized (亿)	NAV (亿)	MOIC	IRR
半导体
新能源
医药
消费

Step 5: J-Curve Analysis

Typical China PE J-curve:

Year 0-2: Negative DPI (capital called, no distributions)
Year 3-5: DPI starts building
Year 5-7: MOIC > 1.0x
Year 7+: Strong distributions

Step 6: Sensitivity Analysis

Sensitivity on key assumptions:

Variable	-20%	-10%	Base	+10%	+20%
Exit multiple
EBITDA growth
Time to exit

China-Specific Considerations

Fund Structures

Structure	Description	Common Use
人民币基金 (RMB fund)	Domestic currency	Onshore investments
美元基金 (USD fund)	Offshore currency	Cross-border, tech
双语基金 (Dual currency)	Both RMB and USD	Flexible allocation
母基金 (Fund of funds)	FoF structure	Diversified access

Return Expectations

Fund Type	IRR Target	MOIC Target	Hold Period
VC (种子/早期)	30-40%	5-10x	5-8 years
Growth equity	20-30%	3-5x	4-7 years
Buyout	15-25%	2-4x	4-7 years
Distressed	20-30%	2-5x	3-5 years

Exit Routes

Route	Description	Typical Timeline	Multiple
A股IPO	IPO on A-share market	5-8 years from investment	3-10x
并购退出	Trade sale to strategic	3-6 years	2-5x
老股转让	Secondary sale	3-5 years	1.5-3x
借壳上市	Reverse merger	3-5 years	2-6x
回购	Sponsor/management buyback	5-8 years	1.5-2.5x
基金份额转让	Fund secondary	Ongoing	0.7-1.2x NAV

Benchmark Indices

Index	Description
沪深300	Broad A-share market
中证1000	Small-cap A-share
中国PE/VC指数	PE/VC performance index
清科指数	Zero2IPO index
投中指数	CVSource index

Quality Checks

Before delivering:

Data Source Mode Switch: Set env var IFIND_DATA_SOURCE_MODE to control data source preference.

ifind-only (strict): Use iFind only, error if unavailable

ifind-fallback (default): iFind preferred, fallback to AkShare

akshare-only: Skip iFind, use AkShare only