china-merger-model

china-merger-model

Purpose

Build A股并购分析模型, analyzing accretion/dilution, synergy capture, and purchase price allocation for M&A transactions involving Chinese companies.

Key Differences from US Merger Models

Data Sources

Tier 0 — 万得 Wind（最全面付费数据）

• 覆盖：A股/港美股/基金/指数/债券/宏观/研报/分析（44个工具）
• MCP 服务：wind-mcp（需 WIND_API_KEY 密钥，以 ak_ 开头）
• 优势：全市场覆盖面最广、数据最全面、包含研报和量化分析
• 密钥申请：https://aifinmarket.wind.com.cn/#/home

Tier 1 — 同花顺 iFind（付费精确数据）/ AkShare MCP（Tier-2 免费备选）

get_financials(ticker_acquirer, "income")   → Acquirer P&L
get_financials(ticker_target, "income")     → Target P&L
get_quote(ticker_acquirer)                  → Acquirer valuation
get_quote(ticker_target)                    → Target valuation
get_industry_stocks(industry="...")          → Peer comparables

Secondary Sources

• 巨潮公告 — transaction announcements (收购公告)
• 交易所 — deal-related filings
• 评估报告 — target valuation reports
• Wind / Choice — comparable transaction multiples

Workflow

Step 1: Transaction Setup

Transaction structure (China-specific):

Key terms:

Step 2: Sources & Uses

Sources:

Uses:

Step 3: Pro Forma Financials

Pro forma balance sheet:

• Acquirer BS + Target BS ± purchase accounting adjustments
• Goodwill calculation
• Debt assumption / payoff
• Cash funding

Pro forma income statement:

Synergy assumptions:

• Revenue synergies: cross-selling, pricing power (typically modest)
• Cost synergies: headcount reduction, procurement savings, facility consolidation
• Implementation costs: integration costs in first 1-2 years

Step 4: Accretion/Dilution Analysis

Per-share analysis:

Pro forma EPS = (Acquirer NI + Target NI + Synergies - Incremental Interest) / Pro forma Shares

Accretion/(Dilution) = (Pro forma EPS / Acquirer Standalone EPS) - 1

Typical thresholds:

• Accretive: >+2%
• Neutral: -2% to +2%
• Dilutive: <-2%

EPS accretion alone is insufficient — also analyze:

• Cash EPS impact
• FCF per share impact
• ROIC accretion
• Strategic rationale

Step 5: Valuation Analysis

Football field:

Transaction multiples:

Step 6: China-Specific Considerations

Earnout / 业绩承诺:

• Very common in China M&A
• Typically 3-year profit commitment
• Compensation mechanism for shortfall
• Impacts deal accounting and future earnings

Regulatory approval:

• 经营者集中申报 (SAMR merger control)
• 外资安全审查 (if foreign buyer)
• 行业主管部门批准 (sector-specific)
• 反垄断审查 timeline: 180 days standard

Tax optimization:

• Step acquisition vs direct acquisition
• Asset deal vs equity deal trade-offs
• 特殊性税务处理 (special tax treatment) for restructuring

Share issuance:

• 定增 (private placement) approval process
• Lock-up periods for new shares
• Dilution impact calculation

Step 7: Scenario Analysis

Bear/Base/Bull scenarios:

• Revenue assumptions
• Synergy realization
• Integration costs
• Financing costs

Step 8: Output

Standard merger model output:

Key outputs:

1. Accretion/dilution by scenario
2. Pro forma financials
3. Transaction multiples
4. Synergy value estimate
5. Strategic rationale summary

Quality Checks

Before delivering:

• Sources & Uses balance
• Pro forma shares calculated correctly
• Synergy assumptions documented
• Accretion/dilution formula verified
• Tax and fee assumptions appropriate for China
• Regulatory considerations noted
• Scenario analysis complete

Data Source Mode Switch: Set env var IFIND_DATA_SOURCE_MODE to control data source preference.

• ifind-only (strict): Use iFind only, error if unavailable
• ifind-fallback (default): iFind preferred, fallback to AkShare
• akshare-only: Skip iFind, use AkShare only
• wind-only: Wind only, error if unavailable
• wind-fallback: Wind first, fallback to iFind → AkShare