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china-earnings-analysis

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Post-earnings quarterly update reports for A-share companies under coverage. Analyzes 业绩快报/正式财报, generates variance tables (actual vs 一致预期 vs prior), flags key drivers, and drafts structured earnings notes in Chinese sell-side format. Use instead of the original earnings-analysis skill for Chinese equities. Triggers on "A股财报分析", "季度业绩点评", "年报/中报点评", "earnings review", or "[company] earnings".

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china-earnings-analysis

Purpose

Create professional A股季度/年度业绩点评报告, analyzing results for companies already under coverage. Follow Chinese sell-side research standards (中金、中信、华泰 format).

Data Sources

Primary: iFind MCP (Tier-1 付费) / AkShare MCP (Tier-2 免费备选)

get_financials(ticker, "income", "quarterly")   → 利润表 (季度)
get_financials(ticker, "income", "annual")      → 利润表 (年度)
get_financials(ticker, "balance", "quarterly")  → 资产负债表
get_financials(ticker, "cashflow", "quarterly") → 现金流量表
get_quote(ticker)                               → 实时行情, PE/PB
get_historical_data(ticker)                     → 股价表现
# News (china-news MCP — separate server)
get_stock_news(ticker="{{TICKER}}")          → 相关新闻

Secondary Sources

  • 巨潮资讯 (cninfo.com.cn) — 正式财报 PDF (mandatory)
  • 上证e互动 / 深交所互动易 — 投资者关系 Q&A
  • 公司官网 — 业绩说明会 (earnings call) 材料
  • 慧博投研 / 同花顺 iFinD — 一致预期数据
  • Wind / Choice — institutional consensus (if available)

Key Financial Terms (Chinese → English)

ChineseEnglishNotes
营业收入RevenueTop-line, net of VAT
营业成本COGSCost of goods sold
毛利率Gross margin营业利润/营业收入
营业利润Operating profit核心经营利润
归母净利润Net income attributable to parentKey metric for A-share coverage
扣非净利润Net income (non-GAAP adj.)Deducts one-time items
净利润Net incomeMay include minority interest
经营活动现金流Operating CF经营现金流
资本支出CapEx购建固定资产
有息负债Interest-bearing debt有息负债
每股收益 (EPS)Earnings per share基本EPS / 稀释EPS

Workflow

Step 1: Pull the Earnings Print

Data to collect:

  • Current quarter / full year income statement (from 巨潮 PDF or iFind/AkShare)
  • Balance sheet and cash flow statement
  • Management commentary / 业绩说明会 transcript
  • Company press release (投资者关系活动记录表)

Verify against:

  • Previous quarter guidance (管理层指引)
  • Consensus estimates (一致预期) if available

Step 2: Build the Variance Table

Required columns:

Item实际 (Actual)一致预期 (Consensus)上次预测 (Prior)同比 (YoY)环比 (QoQ)Surprise
营业收入
毛利率
归母净利润
EPS (基本)
经营现金流

Surprise calculation:

  • Beat/Miss % = (Actual - Consensus) / |Consensus| × 100%
  • Flag:
    • 大幅超预期: >+10%
    • 符合预期: -10% to +10%
    • 低于预期: <-10%

Consensus sources (in priority order):

  1. Wind / Choice 一致预期
  2. 慧博投研 盈利预测
  3. 同花顺 iFinD 盈利预测
  4. 分析师预测调研 (from 巨潮 业绩预告)
  5. If unavailable, note [UNSOURCED]

Step 3: Analyze Key Drivers

Revenue:

  • Volume vs price decomposition
  • Segment revenue breakdown (if disclosed)
  • New product / customer contribution
  • Industry volume trends

Margins:

  • 毛利率变化: input cost (原材料), pricing power, product mix
  • 费用率变化: 费用率 = 费用 / 营业收入
  • 营业利润率 trends

Balance Sheet:

  • 应收账款增速 vs 收入增速
  • 存货积压 risk
  • 有息负债 changes
  • 商誉 level (flag impairment risk)

Cash Flow:

  • 经营现金流 vs 净利润 (quality of earnings)
  • 资本支出 intensity
  • Free cash flow = 经营CF - 资本支出

Step 4: Update Estimates

Forward estimates adjustment:

Based on current quarter results and management guidance:

  • Update FY20XXE revenue, margins, EPS
  • Adjust Q2-Q4 quarterly estimates
  • Update annual consensus if material change
  • Flag if guidance was provided

Estimate change table:

ItemOld EstimateNew EstimateChangeDriver
FY Revenue
FY Net Income
FY EPS

Step 5: Valuation Update

Current valuation metrics:

  • Current stock price + daily change
  • PE (动 / 静), PB, PS
  • EV/EBITDA (if applicable)
  • 52-week high/low, YTD performance
  • Relative to sector median

Post-earnings re-rating assessment:

  • Did multiple expand/contract?
  • Is valuation now cheap/expensive vs history and peers?
  • 目标价 adjustment rationale

Step 6: Draft the Report

Standard A-share earnings update structure:

标题：[公司名称]（[代码]）[Q20XX / FY20XX] 业绩点评：[超预期/符合预期/低于预期]

一、业绩概览
  - 核心数据一览表
  - 同比/环比增速
  - 超出/低于一致预期幅度

二、收入分析
  - 收入增速分解
  - 分业务/分地区收入
  - 量价分析

三、利润分析
  - 毛利率变化及原因
  - 费用率分析
  - 净利润增速分解

四、资产负债表
  - 应收账款
  - 存货
  - 有息负债
  - 其他关注点

五、现金流量
  - 经营现金流
  - 资本支出
  - 自由现金流

六、估值与投资建议
  - 当前估值水平
  - 目标价调整
  - 评级维持/调整

七、风险提示
  - 行业政策风险
  - 原材料价格波动
  - 竞争加剧
  - 商誉减值风险

Step 7: Quality Check

Before delivering:

  • All numbers sourced from 巨潮 PDF or iFind/AkShare
  • Variance table complete with actual/consensus/prior
  • Beat/miss flagged with % surprise
  • Key drivers identified and explained
  • Forward estimates updated
  • Valuation metrics current
  • Risk factors listed (China-specific)
  • Citations complete; unsourced items marked [UNSOURCED]

China-Specific Elements

Earnings Call (业绩说明会)

  • Schedule: typically same day or next trading day after earnings release
  • Location: 上证e互动 / 深交所互动易
  • Format: online video/audio + text Q&A
  • Key questions often from retail investors

Regulatory Requirements

  • 业绩预告 (earnings preview): required if variance >50%
  • 业绩快报 (earnings flash): optional, typically 10 days before full report
  • Full annual report: 4 months after year-end
  • Semi-annual report: 2 months after H1
  • Quarterly report: 1 month after quarter-end

Accounting Nuances

  • 扣非净利润 (non-GAAP net income) widely used by analysts
  • 其他收益 (other income) can mask core operating performance
  • 政府补助 (government subsidies) significant for some sectors
  • 资产减值损失 (asset impairment) — flag if unexpectedly large
  • 股份支付 (share-based compensation) — expensed immediately under CAS

Market Context

  • 涨跌停 limits affect post-earnings price action (±10% main board, ±20% 创业板/科创板)
  • Northbound flow (北向资金) may react strongly to earnings
  • Retail investor participation high → earnings can cause outsized moves

Source Citations

Format for data citations:

Source: 巨潮资讯, [Company] 2024 年年度报告, p.[X], [URL if applicable]
Source: iFind ifind_get_stock_financials / AkShare get_financials(ticker="{{TICKER}}", statement_type="income", period="quarterly")
Source: 慧博投研, [Company] 盈利预测, accessed [Date]
Source: 同花顺 iFinD, 一致预期数据, accessed [Date]

For figures not from primary sources:

[UNSOURCED] — estimate based on [rationale]

Data Source Mode Switch: Set env var IFIND_DATA_SOURCE_MODE to control data source preference.

  • ifind-only (strict): Use iFind only, error if unavailable
  • ifind-fallback (default): iFind preferred, fallback to AkShare
  • akshare-only: Skip iFind, use AkShare only