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china-dcf-model

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Discounted cash flow (DCF) valuation model for A-share equities. This alias skill redirects to china-dcf, which provides comprehensive DCF modeling adapted for Chinese market conventions. Triggers on "A股DCF模型", "DCF估值", "DCF model China", "现金流折现", "discounted cash flow A-share", or "DCF [company]".

QUICK START

How to use this skill

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Source SKILL.md: https://github.com/jwangkun/claude-for-financial-services-cn/blob/HEAD/agent-plugins/china-earnings-reviewer/skills/china-dcf-model/SKILL.md

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china-dcf-model

Note: This skill is an alias/wrapper for china-dcf. For full DCF modeling guidance, see china-dcf/SKILL.md.

Purpose

Provide access to A股DCF估值 — discounted cash flow valuation adapted for Chinese market parameters.

Quick Reference

Core DCF Parameters (China)

ParameterTypical ValueSource
Risk-free rate2.0-3.0%China 10Y CGB yield
Equity risk premium6-8%China-specific
Beta0.8-1.2A-share historical
Cost of debt3-6%China corporate bond yields
Terminal growth3-4%China GDP long-term
Tax rate25% (15% for 高新)CAS

Key Differences from US DCF

AspectUSChina (A-share)
Risk-free rateUST 10YChina 10Y CGB
ERP5-6%6-8% (higher for EM)
Terminal growth2-3%3-4%
Tax rate21% (federal)25% (15% for 高新)
CurrencyUSDCNY
Revenue units$M万元 / 亿元

Quick Workflow

  1. Project FCF — 5-year explicit period
  2. Calculate WACC — Use China parameters
  3. Discount FCF — PV of explicit period
  4. Terminal value — Gordon growth or exit multiple
  5. Enterprise value — Sum of PVs
  6. Equity value — EV - Net debt + Minority interest
  7. Value per share — Equity value / Shares

Common Pitfalls

PitfallChina-Specific Fix
Using US risk-free rateUse China 10Y CGB
Wrong tax rateVerify 高新 enterprise status
Revenue in USDConvert to CNY
Ignoring 增值税Revenue should be net of VAT
Western terminal growthUse 3-4% for China

For Full Details

See: china-dcf/SKILL.md

Quality Checks

  • All parameters China-appropriate
  • FCF projections reasonable
  • WACC components sourced
  • Terminal growth < GDP growth
  • Sensitivity analysis included