china-dcf

Business

DCF valuation model for A-share stocks using Chinese financial data. Uses AkShare MCP for financial statements, WACC inputs (risk-free rate from China government bond yields), and growth projections. Use instead of the original dcf-model skill for Chinese equities.

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Source SKILL.md: https://github.com/jwangkun/claude-for-financial-services-cn/blob/HEAD/agent-plugins/china-earnings-reviewer/skills/china-dcf/SKILL.md

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china-dcf

Data Sources (Multi-Tier)

Tier 0 — 万得 Wind（最全面付费数据）

覆盖：A股/港美股/基金/指数/债券/宏观/研报/分析（44个工具）
MCP 服务：wind-mcp（需 WIND_API_KEY 密钥，以 ak_ 开头）
优势：全市场覆盖面最广、数据最全面、包含研报和量化分析
密钥申请：https://aifinmarket.wind.com.cn/#/home

Tier 1 — 同花顺 iFind（付费精确数据）

ifind_get_stock_financials(ticker, ...)  -> Historical financials
ifind_get_stock_info(ticker)             -> Market data, shares outstanding
ifind_get_risk_indicators(ticker)        -> Beta, volatility for WACC

Tier 2 - AkShare (free, open-source, fallback)

get_financials(ticker, "income", "annual")     -> Historical P and L
get_financials(ticker, "balance", "annual")    -> Historical BS
get_quote(ticker)                              -> Market cap, price

Data source mode switch: When env var IFIND_DATA_SOURCE_MODE=ifind-only, use iFind exclusively.

wind-only: Wind only, error if unavailable

wind-fallback: Wind first, fallback to iFind → AkShare

Key differences from US-market DCF

Parameter	US DCF Convention	China DCF Convention
Risk-free rate	US 10Y Treasury	China 10Y CGB (国债收益率, ~2.5-3.5%)
Equity risk premium	~5-6% (historical US)	~6-8% (China A-share ERP)
Tax rate	US corporate 21%	China corporate 25% (高新技术企业 15%)
Terminal growth	US GDP growth (~2%)	China GDP growth (~4-5%)
Currency	USD	CNY
Reporting standard	US GAAP / IFRS	CAS (中国会计准则)

Workflow

Step 1: Pull financials

get_financials(ticker, "income", "annual")   → last 5 years
get_financials(ticker, "balance", "annual")
get_financials(ticker, "cashflow", "annual")

Step 2: Get market data

get_quote(ticker)  → price, market cap, PE, PB
get_index_data("000001") → benchmark return for beta estimation

Step 3: Build projections

Project revenue using historical growth rates adjusted for China macro outlook
Assume 65-75% operating margin for 白酒 / high-margin sectors
Assume 15-25% operating margin for manufacturing
CapEx as % of revenue: check historical from cashflow statement

Step 4: Compute WACC

WACC = E/(D+E) * Ke + D/(D+E) * Kd * (1 - tax_rate)

Ke = Rf + β * ERP
  Rf   = China 10Y CGB yield (use ak.bond_zh_us_rate() or web search for latest)
  β    = regression on 上证指数 returns (or use comparable firm beta)
  ERP  = 6-8% (China-specific equity risk premium)

Kd   = China 5Y corporate bond yield + credit spread

Step 5: Terminal value

Terminal Value = FCF_(n+1) / (WACC - g)
g = 3-4% for mature Chinese companies (China nominal GDP growth)

Notes

Chinese fiscal year ends December 31 for most companies
北向资金 (Northbound flow) data can be used as sentiment indicator
商誉 (goodwill) impairments are common in China M&A — flag if goodwill > 30% of equity
Some Chinese financial statements are reported in 千元 (thousands of CNY) vs 元 — check the unit