alphagbm-polymarket

Business

Integrates prediction market data (Polymarket) with options analysis to surface mispricing signals between event probabilities and options-implied probabilities. Triggers: "polymarket signals", "prediction market vs options", "event probability", "rate cut odds", "election odds vs options", "polymarket arbitrage", "implied probability mismatch", "prediction market data", "event-driven options"

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AlphaGBM Polymarket Integration

Bridges prediction markets and options markets -- when Polymarket says 70% chance of a rate cut but options imply 55%, that is a potential mispricing you can trade.

What This Skill Does

Concept	Description
Event Probability	The prediction market's consensus probability for a specific event (e.g., rate cut, election outcome)
Options-Implied Probability	The probability the options market is pricing in, derived from option prices and skew
Probability Spread	The gap between prediction market and options-implied probabilities -- large spreads signal mispricing
Arbitrage Signal	When the spread exceeds a threshold, there may be a tradeable opportunity
Event Correlation	How strongly a binary event maps to specific options positions
Historical Accuracy	Track record of prediction markets vs options in forecasting similar past events

How to Use

Input: An event type or query about prediction market vs options pricing.

Output:

Event probability comparison table: Polymarket probability vs options-implied probability
Probability spread and direction (which market is more bullish/bearish on the event)
Mispricing signals ranked by confidence and spread size
Suggested options trades to exploit the mispricing
Historical accuracy comparison for similar past events

Example Queries:

polymarket signals — Scan for the largest probability mismatches right now
prediction market vs options rate cut — Compare Fed rate cut odds across markets
event probability election — Election outcome probabilities vs options positioning
rate cut odds — What prediction markets and options each imply about the next Fed meeting
polymarket arbitrage — Actionable mispricing opportunities

Mock Data

Mock data files are located in mock-data/polymarket/ and include:

rate-cut-comparison.json — Fed rate cut probabilities: Polymarket vs options-implied
event-scan.json — Top mispricing signals across active prediction markets
historical-accuracy.json — Past event forecasting accuracy by market type

API Endpoint

GET /api/analytics/polymarket/signals
GET /api/analytics/polymarket/event/{event_id}

Query parameters:

event_type (string) — Filter: "fed", "election", "earnings", "macro", "all"
min_spread (float, default 0.10) — Minimum probability spread to surface (10%)
include_trades (bool, default true) — Include suggested options trades

Response fields: events[], polymarket_prob, options_implied_prob, spread, confidence, suggested_trades[], historical_accuracy

Related Skills

Skill	Relevance
alphagbm-market-sentiment	Macro sentiment context for interpreting event probabilities
alphagbm-options-strategy	Strategy recommendations that can exploit mispricing signals

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